Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 6.4 | 11.5% | 85 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 7.1 | 13.8% | 102 | 0.75% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 14.1 | 20.1% | 148 | 0.71% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 11.7 | 17.2% | 127 | 0.93% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 10.1 | 13.8% | 102 | 0.97% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 6.1 | 10.2% | 75 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 5.1 | 7.3% | 54 | 0.47% |
| 70+ | 0 | 4.4 | 6.1% | 45 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 0 | 65.3 | 100% | 738 | 0.71% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | 17880 | 64476 | 564 | 145 | 755 |
| Nov 20 | 17958 | 64536 | 564 | 145 | 739 |
| Nov 21 | 17958 | 64570 | 564 | 145 | 643 |
| Nov 22 | 18053 | 64620 | 565 | 146 | 669 |
| Nov 23 | 18158 | 64715 | 567 | 146 | 714 |
| Nov 24 | 18259 | 64835 | 569 | 146 | 813 |
| Nov 25 | 18259 | 64870 | 570 | 146 | 738 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | 11930 | 37595 | 500 | 126 | 478 |
| Nov 20 | 11970 | 37631 | 503 | 126 | 460 |
| Nov 21 | 11981 | 37658 | 503 | 126 | 418 |
| Nov 22 | 12049 | 37708 | 506 | 126 | 437 |
| Nov 23 | 12121 | 37747 | 507 | 127 | 485 |
| Nov 24 | 12172 | 37807 | 510 | 127 | 507 |
| Nov 25 | 12172 | 37831 | 510 | 127 | 468 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 6.3 | 12.2% | 57 | 0.73% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 4.9 | 15% | 70 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 4.9 | 9% | 42 | 0.59% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 9.6 | 22.2% | 104 | 1.24% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 6.0 | 13.5% | 63 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 5.7 | 12.4% | 58 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 4.0 | 8.1% | 38 | 0.45% |
| 70+ | 0 | 3.7 | 7.7% | 36 | 0.51% |
| All ages | 0 | 45.0 | 100% | 468 | 0.72% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | 9257 | 25029 | 417 | 97 | 399 |
| Nov 20 | 9286 | 25059 | 418 | 97 | 372 |
| Nov 21 | 9309 | 25085 | 418 | 97 | 344 |
| Nov 22 | 9353 | 25100 | 422 | 100 | 356 |
| Nov 23 | 9411 | 25124 | 424 | 101 | 384 |
| Nov 24 | 9453 | 25143 | 424 | 101 | 405 |
| Nov 25 | 9465 | 25167 | 425 | 101 | 376 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.7 | 8.5% | 32 | 0.59% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 4.4 | 13.6% | 51 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 5.1 | 13% | 49 | 1.08% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 5.7 | 18.1% | 68 | 1.25% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 3.6 | 13.3% | 50 | 1% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.3 | 14.4% | 54 | 0.8% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.9 | 10.1% | 38 | 0.6% |
| 70+ | 0 | 3.0 | 9% | 34 | 0.54% |
| All ages | 12 | 34.7 | 100% | 376 | 0.83% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | 18968 | 74857 | 722 | 123 | 819 |
| Nov 20 | 18990 | 74916 | 722 | 123 | 733 |
| Nov 21 | 19043 | 74958 | 722 | 123 | 725 |
| Nov 22 | 19097 | 75084 | 723 | 123 | 664 |
| Nov 23 | 19198 | 75204 | 722 | 123 | 690 |
| Nov 24 | 19250 | 75320 | 723 | 123 | 646 |
| Nov 25 | 19248 | 75415 | 723 | 123 | 574 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 9.1 | 16.7% | 104 | 0.88% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 6.1 | 12.8% | 80 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | -1 | 8.3 | 14.4% | 90 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | -1 | 9.3 | 17.3% | 108 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 7.4 | 14.4% | 90 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 5.7 | 10.9% | 68 | 0.48% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 4.3 | 7.9% | 49 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.7 | 5.5% | 34 | 0.26% |
| All ages | -2 | 53.0 | 100% | 623 | 0.53% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | 61090 | 435522 | 2025 | 382 | 1685 |
| Nov 20 | 61155 | 436040 | 2027 | 382 | 1571 |
| Nov 21 | 61306 | 436370 | 2028 | 382 | 1562 |
| Nov 22 | 61576 | 436702 | 2030 | 386 | 1653 |
| Nov 23 | 61764 | 437417 | 2035 | 386 | 1801 |
| Nov 24 | 61971 | 438189 | 2038 | 386 | 1932 |
| Nov 25 | 61972 | 438593 | 2040 | 386 | 1638 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 30.7 | 18.1% | 296 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 22.3 | 13.4% | 220 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 23.6 | 16.5% | 271 | 0.26% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 30.3 | 18.9% | 309 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | -1 | 21.1 | 13.6% | 222 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 14.6 | 9% | 147 | 0.22% |
| 60-69 | -1 | 9.7 | 6.5% | 106 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 0 | 6.1 | 4.1% | 67 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 1 | 158.4 | 100% | 1638 | 0.3% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 | 950024 | 3643852 | 47892 | 9830 | 36975 |
| Nov 20 | 951658 | 3647980 | 47911 | 9830 | 34381 |
| Nov 21 | 953422 | 3650749 | 47915 | 9831 | 32344 |
| Nov 22 | 958496 | 3654079 | 48115 | 9873 | 33446 |
| Nov 23 | 963229 | 3660393 | 48325 | 9922 | 36481 |
| Nov 24 | 967530 | 3666572 | 48497 | 9940 | 39465 |
| Nov 25 | 968290 | 3670079 | 48550 | 9944 | 35417 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 89 | 426.4 | 13.3% | 4716 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 102 | 446.6 | 14.4% | 5115 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 107 | 420.6 | 12.8% | 4540 | 0.6% |
| 30-39 | 131 | 546.3 | 16.9% | 6000 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 114 | 437.9 | 13.5% | 4796 | 0.69% |
| 50-59 | 87 | 402.4 | 12.3% | 4361 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 69 | 309.7 | 9.3% | 3302 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 60 | 235.7 | 7.2% | 2565 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 760 | 3227.0 | 100% | 35417 | 0.61% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-12-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 9785"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges